Giuliani and the conservative base
This article supports my view though it's not conclusive.
It's not skeletons you know, it's skeletons that are IN closets. And dressing up like a girl only matters if people have any reason to expect that you mean it. ;-)
The social liberalism matters. The 2nd Ammendment matters. But they aren't going to matter as much as people think they will.
I've heard liberal persons explain who OTHER people won't vote for... how do they know? I think it's their own prejudice speaking, either their prejudice ("a black person/woman/Jew can't get elected") or prejudice about other people's supposed prejudice. And people don't like it when those assumptions are made about them. In the last election Kerry and Edwards tried to play on what they *believed* would put off the Republican religious base... that Mary Cheney is a lesbian. That the reaction and anger was directed at Kerry and Edwards was predictable to anyone with a clue. It didn't even mean that people *approved* of Mary. It doesn't take approval or agreement with a lifestyle to recognize the dispicable *intent* of the Kerry/Edwards campaign.
And that's what's most likely to happen if a Democratic (or even Republicans in the primaries) try to sway the conservative religious base with Giuliani's behavior... it will be percieved as malicious gossip and a slur on the characters, not of Giuliani, but of the conservative religious base. And they will resent it.
And the liberal social policies? If he's not vowing to interfere in States issues, it's not going to matter any where near as much as some people think it will. He's not an evil person just because he holds contrary views.
(And the Democrat habit of having a "personal" view of abortion as wrong, like Ferraro and I think maybe Kerry did it too, good Catholics... and a separate actively pro-choice view for government.... bad idea folks. Really really bad. Just be for it or against it, people can respect that.)